from rocky mountain highs and lows to the long island soundoff, the rubber match. what once seemed like an advantage for president obama is a toss-up tussle. also a toss-up, the race itself. it's about 47%. no, not that 47% comment. literally. 47% for each candidate among likely voters in our new nbc news "wall street journal" poll what will happen tonight to move those numbers with just 15 days left. the sprint is on. and here in florida, affairs isn't just about the middle east and china. it's about that country 90 miles away. how much will cuba be an issue that puts one candidate over the top in the sunshine state? we have it covered this morning from lynn university in boca raton. it's monday, october 22nd, 2012. this is "the daily rundown," i'm chuck todd. we've got a ton to get to. let me get right to my first

reads of the morning. with just hours left until tonight's final debate, our new nbc news "wall street journal" poll shows how competitive this race has become. an important slice of undecided voters still are not persuaded to rehire the president. but also not convinced, it seems, he needs to be fired. will anything tonight help these folks decide? well, the candidates prep their surrogates spoke out sunday, previewing tonight's lines of attack. >> the american people have gotten to see mitt romney up close as he offers his vision of the future, and what he would do as president. but even more startling is the president's complete failure to put forth an agenda for the next four years. >> people want to know they have a strong, steady hand in the oval office and they don't want someone who is reckless. we all remember his "dukes of hazard" tour of international destinations over the summer. >> but tonight's session on foreign policy, which sounded weeks ago like a potential mismatch, an incumbent president responsible for the death of osama bin laden in the ring against a one-term governor with

little foreign policy experience now looks like a fairer fight. the president's edge on who would make a better commander in chief has slipped from eight points a month ago to just three. he leads romney 44-41 on that issue in our new poll. overall, the president leads romney on who is best equipped to handle foreign policy by eight points. 46-38. but romney is viewed as a viable alternative. tonight's format will break down this way. moderator, cbs's bob schieffer divided the 90-debate on foreign policy into six 15-minute segments. they're on america's role in the world, afghanistan and pakistan, israel and iran, the changing middle east and the new face of terror and the rise of china. the two candidates will be seated tonight, and there will be a two-minute closing statement. the president closes first, romney gets the last word. ahead of tonight's debate, new developments across the middle east on sunday the white house denied reporting by the new york times that the u.s. has agreed to direct bilateral talks with

iran on its nuclear program while saying it remains open to talks. romney supporters were quick to criticize the white house on this front. >> it's another example of a national security leak from the white house. they have done a lot of that. it sounds like the u.s. is taking a position that we're likely to jettison our allies. >> there is a pattern here. we talk, they enrich. it needs to stop. >> well, obama campaign senior adviser david axelrod said he had no knowledge about possible talks, defended the administration's iran policy. >> there is a tremendous disquiet in iran. their currency has dropped in value by 50%. their oil business has dropped by 50%. and they're feeling the heat. and that's what the sanctions were meant to do. >> another question for tonight. how much will this debate matter? in our new poll, 27% of voters tell us the debates have made them more likely to support romney, compared to 24% who said the same of obama.

that three-point edge is a small advantage compared to 2000 and 2004. in 2004, the challenger, john kerry, led george w. bush 33-17. back in 2000, bush had a seven-point gap over al gore. now, not all ties are equal. in our poll, it shows voters are feeling more optimistic about the economy, but it's not helping the president make the final sale. among likely voters, a tie. 47%. it's a precarious position for an incumbent president who once led on a likely voter number 50-45 just a month ago. the question is whether this tie signals a shift away from the president. there is still an enthusiasm gap among the wider pool, the president leads 49-44. the bottom line, the president may have more room to grow, but he's got to motivate the base and that's a big if. if he is winning hispanic voters by a whopping 45 points, 70-25, and enthusiasm among hispanics is improving, 57% now call themselves a 9 or 10 on the interest level.

last month. now it is up to 68%. is that enough hispanic voters to turn out to make for the president's problem, among white ? among white voters, 36% back the president. that's a losing number. in 2008, the president won 43% of the white vote. but romney is opening the door for the president to underperform with whites by losing hispanics by such a huge margin. for the gender gap, it's narrow. the president's lead is eight points among women. the smallest lead we have shown all year long. romney holds a ten-point lead among all men. the great con nun drum is how improved the economic optimism and how it is not helping the president. his approval rating remains 489%. 41% say the country is on track, the highest since june of 2009. and just 9% believe the economy will get worse in the next 12 months. that's the lowest number we have recorded on that question in over 20 years. 45% believe things will get better. the highest number on that score since september 2009.

but despite this improving mood, this last chunk of swing voters is just stuck. and the president is barely getting an advantage for being an incumbent. an advantage that he should be getting with these numbers. there are doubts about a second obama term. and it's making this election look a lot like the down to the wire 2004 contest between president bush and senator john kerry. while the president is dominating the micro messaging, winning on women's issues, likability and abortion, romney is dominating the macro message on the economy. voters say romney is better prepared to create jobs and improve the economy by 45 to 41. just 37% of voters tell us they were quite or extremely confident obama had the right policies for the economy. and just another 22% somewhat confident. for romney, 35% were extremely confident, just another 28% somewhat confident. but he does better on that other score. the obama-biden ticket is barely ahead of romney-ryan when asked if they know what candidates

would do if elected. not a good number. and the biggest red flag for the president, 62% of voters want major changes if he's re-elected. only 4% said they want obama's second term to look a lot like the first one. obama adviser david axelrod appearing on "meet the press" said while the polls are getting closer, he believes there are positive indicators for the president. >> if you look at the early voting going on around the country, it's very robust, and it's very favorable to us. and we think that's a better indicator than these public polls, which are flankly, all over the map. >> as for red flags in our poll for mitt romney, they're there. what's holding romney back? voters still aren't fully convinced he can relate to them. romney trails the president badly, by 35 points when voters are asked which candidate is more easy going and likeable. down by 24 points. when asked who has the compassion necessary to understand average people, romney trails by a 16-point margin. on the question of which candidate would do better for looking out for the middle class. that is still the reason why he is behind, if you will, when it

comes to ohio. those three questions tell you everything you need to know about the president's advantage in ohio for now. back to the debate. expect a clash over libya tonight as mitt romney gets another chance to portray the benghazi attack as exhibit a of what he says is the president's failed middle east policy. and sunday, marco rubio sunday they shifted the libya story to make sure it doesn't distract from its overall narrative. >> one of the narratives the obama campaign laid out, obama is dead, bragged about that forever, and al qaeda is in retreat. and you start to wonder, did they basically say do not allow any story to emerge that counters that narrative. >> we'll see if romney pursues that line of attack. the president, on the other hand, got a boost from a report that laid out talking points as constructed by the cia, just four days after the incident in benghazi. according to "the washington post" the assessment read as follows. the currently available information suggestion the demonstrations were inspired by

the protest and involved a direct assault against the u.s. consulate, supporting what susan rice told the media the next morning. the "wall street journal" also reports the president was told on his daily intelligence briefing for more than a week after the september 11th attack the assault grew out of a protest. none of this is stopping criticism of the administration. joining me now south carolina senator lindsay graham called it failed presidential leadership, a member of the rnc services committee joins us on behalf of the romney campaign. senator dpram, how are you? nice to see you at the debate site. let me ask you, what -- you have been heavily critical of the administration. why haven't you been critical of the intelligence community? it's clear, one of two things. >> i'm about to. >> okay. >> everybody -- the cia chief, i know, reported up the chain within 24 hours it was a terrorist attack inspired by militants. i wrote a letter to general petraeus, who i admire greatly, 11 days ago.

tell me, senator mccain, what information you had suggesting it was a spontaneous riot spurred on by a video. they give the information, apparently some of it to "the washington post" but not me, a united states senator. anyone at the cia telling anyone five days later this was a riot by a mob that never -- there is a video. release the video of the consulate. there is nobody around the consula consulate. so if they're going to continue to say this, you need to fire the people at the cia. >> it's my understanding, and i know -- the intelligence community -- what you guys were getting briefed on. >> exactly. >> you guys were getting briefed the same thing susan rice was getting briefed in the first five days, my understanding. the cia -- >> we left the briefing after she -- we were briefed after the classified briefing -- after she testified. what i was being told early on, this was a militia. you don't have a riot with heavy weapons that goes on for seven hours in a pre-planned fashion. there was no video inspiring the june attack. benghazi was in the hands of al

qaeda between april and september in larger measure. the reports coming out of benghazi was that the security footprints deteriorating the british left, the red cross left. they didn't leave because of a video. they left because of insurgents and mill litsch i can't taking over benghazi. >> senator mccain -- you're one of the three ameeg, i want to play something senator contain said about libya in july. you said april to september. here's what he said about the situation in libya in july. >> i was there for their election. and you know how many people i met who had had their sons, their husbands, their fathers, family members slaughtered by moammar gadhafi? and so to somehow say that libya is a failure actually, it's a great success. >> he was talking about libya overall. but you were saying the benghazi

situation was in april. deteriorating. those weren't the reports senator mccain was bringing back, or at least publicly wasn't sharing with the public. >> on tour in 2011, i went there with senator mccain, rubio and i think kirk. we wrote an op-ed piece that the key to libya's disarming the militias and creating a national army in october of 2011, we said we should have a full-court press to provide training to the libyan national army to get the militias off the battlefield. >> who is going to do this training? >> nato and us. >> so this was -- >> they were willing to pay us back. >> okay. and do you believe -- put your political hat on. do you believe congress would have supported a situation of sending united states military trainers to -- >> yes, i do. i really do believe that it was the right thing to do. you didn't need congressional approval. >> you were on an island out there. >> but chuck, i think most americans are war-weary but not tired of being safe. it was clear that the militias were the biggest threat to a

successful libya. we have done nothing in a year, from october of 2011 to september the 15th, we did almost nothing to deal with the militia problem and help the libyans. >> what's the lesson, though, from libya now, considering the time your people involved in the revolution, not sure who you're working with. what's the lesson for syria -- >> here's the lesson -- >> i'm talking about syria, because a lot of people call forearming syria and the same thing happening in libya. you might help al qaeda. >> the wrong people are being armed. >> that's right. >> provide capacity to those who have the will to fight terrorism in their own backyard. arm the right people. get this over with, and have a follow-on international force to go in behind. >> so there should be turkeys fighting syria. help turkey help -- and we come in after? >> help the syrians in coordination to get arms into the hands of the rebels we believe will be agents of change. get the arms to the right people. and when assad follows, realize it's going to be a miss.

learn from bush's mistakes. >> well, i was just going to ask you that -- what's your advice to governor romney when he's asked this question, how is your foreign policy different from president -- how is your foreign policy different from president bush? >> i will be more situationally aware. the things i hear about libya, iraq, are the same things i heard out of the bush administration, 2004. everything is going well. this is just a few dead enders. you don't need end ramps and in 2004 falling apart. iraq is falling apart today. al qaeda has doubled in size, iran has more influence. learn from bush's mistakes. don't oversell to the american people. obama is describing -- there's a disconnect between the narrative that president obama is giving about the world in large and the reality. very similar to what happened in iraq. learn from bush's mistake, learn from obama's mistakes. be smart. listen to your commanders. don't oversell. >> but it does seem like you're calling for kaekt tactical, realistic foreign policy. >> i'm talk about a strategic

change that says we will provide capacity to those who have the wilt to keep the fight over there. sometimes that's your moral voice, like in iran. sometimes it's economic aid. sometimes it's military training. sometimes it's special forces. northern mali is a place we will eventually have to address. al qaeda has not been diminished. the narrative that killing bin laden has ended this war or made the war recede is not based on reality on the ground. very similar to what iraq was in 2004. the reality of iraq versus what bush was telling us was totally different. >> that will be a kfrlgs, i imagine, the two men will have tonight. senator lindsay graham, nice to see you. much more to come on "the daily rundown." congresswoman debbie wasserman schultz and issues that matter domestically to florida voters. first, a look ahead at the schedules. i think you guys know where they're going to be tonight at 9:00. 7:30 to 9:00, watching the cardinals and giants, i'm

guessing. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc live from lynn university here in boca raton, florida. no, no, no, stop! humans -- one day, we're coming up with the theory of relativity, the next... stop, stop, stop! my car! not so much. but that's okay. you're covered with great ideas like optional better car replacement from liberty mutual insurance. total your car, and we give you the money to buy one a model year newer. learn about it at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility -- what's your policy?

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ahead of tonight's foreign policy debate, the obama campaign released a new ad touting his credentials and promise to end the war in iraq. take a listen. >> a decade of war that cost us dearly. and now for president, a clear choice. president obama ended the iraq war. mitt romney would have left 30,000 troops there.

and called bringing them home tragic. >> joining me now from the chair of the democratic national committee and a member of congress here from the state of florida, debber wasserman-schultz. i'm going get you to respond immediately to something senator graham said. and he said that the war -- that the implication that the administration has made that the war with al qaeda, that al qaeda is on the run, that you can't make that claim anymore. considering the rise of al qaeda and libya, the rise of al qaeda in other places. how do you respond to that? >> the fact is, thanks to barack obama's commitment to re-establishing our focus on decimating the ranks of al qaeda, thanks to his successful bringing of osama bin laden to justice, al qaeda is not able to stage massive attacks in multiple places. they are in very, very limited ways able to stage attacks. >> but they're certainly creating new instability in the middle east.

they seem new outposts of al qaeda. >> the bottom line, they are dramatically, dramatically reduced in terms of their ability to make significant damage. and that was the importance of shifting -- bringing our troops home from iraq, shifting our focus to decimating al qaeda, reducing their ability to really have widespread impact and shrinking their ability to commit significant acts of terror. that's why we have to keep our eye on the prize, we have to keep focusing on making sure we can protect america from those who would do us harm. not the backwards cowboy justice that mitt romney would drag us back to. it's so unclear what mitt romney would do differently than president obama. >> you just sort of said two different things. you said cowboy foreign policy and then you said it's not clear what he would do differently from president obama. that's two different things. >> and that is the nature of what mitt romney's focus in

foreign policy has been. who knows what -- he hasn't said what he would do differently. he has done a lot of bellicose chest thumping that leads you to believe that -- >> you think it will be a different foreign policy? are you trying to say it will be? >> i'm saying i have no idea. because he has not made it clear. he has plenty of opportunity tonight to make it clear what he would do differently than president obama. is it that he would take us to war in iran? does he think that we should be making -- engaged in more than military action? he hasn't said. he's done a lot -- he has gone up to that line, done a lot of chest-thumping. but going to war is the last option, not the first. and mitt romney has flirted with the idea that that's the direction we should go. >> can what is said tonight about iran and israel security move votes in the state of florida? >> well, i think it will be -- continued to be clear to voters in the state of florida that president obama has a remarkable record, has been a stellar friend to israel, has had

israel's back every step of the way. >> does the bad personal relationship that's clear between the president and netanyahu, does that hurt? >> they have a strong professional relationship. >> it's personal. does that matter? >> what matters is that the president has been there in terms of security for the state of israel, given them the biggest amount of foreign aid ever. the iron dome missile defense system stood in front of the entire world, made it clear there is no way the palestinians will achieve a state without direct bilateral negotiations. it sounds like by you ticking off those things that yes, it can move votes here. the issue of israel can move votes -- >> the lies and distortions of the republicans which really jeopardizes israel, that -- that is what's the worst part about their approach. >> let me ask you about cuba. the president has eased the policy, some of the travel policy for families to travel to cuba. that's not very popular in certain parts of the cuban community. is that going to hurt him in dade county? is that going to cost him votes and any -- obviously any size

vote matters. >> president obama is going to -- i think president obama will have the best performance in terms of the turnout in the election in the overall hispanic community and in the cuban-american community, because he has invested in the things that matter. education, health care, making sure that we can continue to turn the economy around. >> but policy toured toward the island of cuba is a voting issue. is that a problem in the community? >> unbalanced because of the policies that president obama championed that mattered to the cuban community, he will have the best result from the cuban-american community than in history. >> all right. you are sticking to your point there. i understand that. thanks for coming on this morning. see you in the debate hall. >> thank you. market rundown is next. and then we're going to dig deeper in our national poll. it's all about enthusiasm, folks. the cliche is turnout, but there is a reason why it's a cliche. it's true. our pollsters next. first today's trivia question in honor of george mcgovern who

died over the weekend. who did george mcgovern win? first correct answer coming up on "the daily rundown" live from boca raton, florida.

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this race has all the elements to become closest in u.s. history, plenty of reasons the president could win, thanks to vote who are reluctantly decided to rehire him. again then, plenty of reasons he could come up short because the same slice of voters reluctantly decides to let him go. joining me now, democratic pollster fred yang and bill mcinturff. fred, let me start with you. this whole election seems to be -- let me read you this tweet i got based on our poll. and i thought, boy, does this

not sum it up. john p. coke tweeted this. the registered voters numbers would seem to indicate that obama can improve by closing enthusiasm, while romney needs to persuade. would you rather be obama or romney? i'm going to put the question to both of you. fred, you first. would you rather be right now obama or romney? >> i would rather be president obama. i mean, look. i think all of us, bill mcinturff and the republicans included, all of us thought this would be a close election. i think the numbers from the poll, they'll look good for the president. the right direction, 41%. people believe the economy is improving. there are other numbers, obviously, which favor mitt romney, but i think given where the economy has been, and where this country has been, to close in the last two weeks with a 41% right direction, that's a pretty good place to be. >> bill, same question to you. >> well, i think president obama is at an advantage, because he has to turnout hispanics, which they're good at. but peter hart, our democrat

partner, said something really powerful yesterday. he said, which of these candidates could get 52% of the vote? not 48, 49 and 52. and what he said was, and he's right. it's the challenger, mitt romney. and that tells you that potential that still exists for this race to be a little unexpected. and i think in that way, romney is -- >> you're saying basically -- that romney has a higher ceiling than the president. >> i believe that. i think that's true. peter hart said it, and i think it's a very powerful and intuitive comment. >> all right. i want to dig into the polls here. this seems to be a game of turnout, margins, numbers, i'm going to throw a couple things up here, fred, very fast. enthusiasm numbers here on hispanic voters went up 11 points from september, october. 57% to 68. voters 18 to 34, 49 to 60. african-americans, 82-83. that is unchanged. what we should point out, though, among hispanics in 18 to 34, those are still lower than 2008. how concerned?

>> lower than 2008, but unlike 2008, we still have two more weeks until the election. look, i think, chuck, that's what this -- that's what this campaign is coming down to. each of the candidates, obama, romney, are going to their bases, going to their swing states. i think it's clear from the poll, this would be a close election. and if the president can get the enthusiasm from hispanics and young voters, he can win re-election. >> bill, you said something powerful in our poll call. you said mitt romney is hitting all of his target numbers among white voters, among the republican coalition, if you will. if he only lost hispanics by 35 points, the same margin john mccain lost in 2008. but that's not the case right now. among hispanics, the president leads by 45 points. 70 -- he's at 70%, romney at 25. among white voters. 59-36. so you basically said, both obama's white number and romney's hispanic number are losing numbers. how can both be a losing number?

>> well, my first boss, my first day in national politics -- remember, somebody has to win. and the reason this poll is tied is because we have two kind of unsustainable numbers. romney cannot win with that hispanic number. the president cannot win with that white number. and guess what? they're tied. so what it means is either one of two things. either one, that's how the race will end up, that we'll end up functionally tied. or b., the president will not be able to generate that turnout with hispanics or that margin in our poll is higher than reality when people really go to vote. or b., the president will make up ground with white voters. but as i have said, this is a pollster's cycle for humility. the american electorate is very difficult, very ticked off and very hard to predict. and i have been -- this cycle more than any being very cautious, trying to be too declarative what's going to happen, even with only two weeks left. this is a very unpredictable election. >> all right. so you've digested this entire

national poll, same last question for both you, fred and you, bill. and that is, you look at this national data. what now -- what two states do you now feel as if sort of will -- that this national data will either -- either confirm which way they're going -- which two states do you feel as if you want to know the results of, based on how you've consumed this data over the last 72 hours? >> i think, like bill said, this has been a confound of the election. i do think everyone agrees in the battleground states, they have remained the same. i think the two states i am most interested in are ohio and virginia. >> yeah, i think it's -- ohio -- if you take ohio, number one, and if you took ohio at, it's virginia and iowa. >> so neither one of you is picking a state with a large hispanic number. why? fred? >> well, you know, i think -- i think ohio has been sort of the battleground from day one. i think that -- look, if

approximate you let me pick three, i would have picked florida. >> that would be your three. bill? same question to you on hispanic number. >> i think we've had six tracks. and five of the tracks have romney hitting florida and the one he's losing is by a point. i think these national numbers, when you're tied nationally, florida tends to be two or three points better than the national number for republicans. i now believe florida could easily go for romney. but you have to look at electoral votes. if i were governor romney, it's hard personally to count the 270 without a sweep, meaning florida, ohio, virginia. and then you do have to pick off a state and that state could be iowa. and i'm a little concerned about nevada from a romney perspective. harry reid won that state because of high hispanic turnout. in 2010, hispanic turnout in nevada was higher than in '08. and i think that's potential problem and why i've got to focus more on iowa and virginia. >> all right.

bill mcinturff, fred yang, i've got to leave it there. gentlemen, always good, i always wish i had more time. this is a great poll. people spending all their time reading before the debate. the market rebound from today's drop. plenty corporate earnings come out today. c nbls's becky quick with the market rundown. i can't overdo the cross talk or bower is going kill me. >> we'll go through quickly, i'm fascinated by the poll numbers too. this morning, a struggle for wall street, looking at mixed markets. but the dow and s&p are lower after we got earnings from caterpillar this morning. caterpillar, we knew, was going to be weak. they warned us about that as recently as a month ago. this morning, the revenue number came in light and they lowered their guidance for 2013 once again. that's the big concern. we spoke with the ceo, doug observ observ observ observer hom. when you start looking at what's happening in the rest of -- in europe, that's the biggest concern. he does say that europe -- the u.s. is going to be okay. china is going to be okay. europe is still the big problem zone. and he pointed out that if we go

over the fiscal cliff, well, then all bets are off. so we're hoping for some sort of solution to that. in the meantime, it's wait and see for the election, wait and see for the january fiscal cliff, as well. >> all right. becky quick, thank you much. next, from iran to libya, to cuba, taking a deep dive into the foreign policy plate. "the daily rundown" will be back in 30 seconds. now a deep divinto the foreign affairs challenges. we begin with iran. the white house this weekend denied reports that the u.s. has

agreed to engage in one-on-one nuclear talks. this issue could galvanize republicans, as well as jewish voters fearful of the fallout from israel. the jewish voters are a key constituency here in florida. for them, this is about ensuring the next president is on the same page as israel and personally, perhaps with prime minister netanyahu who has publicly declared time is running short. for years, getting tough meant inconsistenting that all options are on the table. the next president may have to decide, do you back a preemptive strike and risk the backlash. turning to the arab spring, the obama administration responded to real-time political uprises in a dozen countries. something mitt romney said the president failed. >> across the greater middle east, as the joy borne from the downfall of dictators has given way to painstaking work of forces and growing economies and developing effective democratic institutions, the president has failed to offer the tangible

support that our partners want and need. >> that said, it's a stark reminder, there is no such thing as a one-size-fits-all approach to the middle east. in libya, america did back anti-government rebels who succeeded in toppling gadhafi, but the situation is far from stable. in syria, the u.s. has taken the opposite approach, hoping international pressure will force president assad to resign. and become like yemen. the next commander in chief will likely have to decide whether an aggressive approach can be effective in preventing a wider and deadlier conflict. cuba, of course, always the potential to move votes. the president has eased some travel policies, potentially opening the door to closer economic ties. but mitt romney, on the other hand has called on getting tough on cuba, a contrast that might simply be about motivating cuban voters in dade county. of course, a critical factor to keep in mind tonight, foreign policy plans can't be sprafted

from domestic. far weaker if we don't have the political and economic power to back them up. richard haass is the author of "foreign policy begins at home." richard, always good to see you. i love this lead from "the washington post" this morning, column on the foreign policy debate and the conundrum that this is an easy red versus blue. the problem is not the democrats are wimps or that republicans are war mongers or washington's halls of power are filled with the greedy and hapless, but rather that few foreign policy problems can be solved. most can at best be managed and just getting by is often the best we can do. that's a realistic approach that voters never want to hear on the campaign trail. >> sure, you want to hear the word solution as americans but that happens to be the truth and indeed in lots of the world i would say our interests are greater than our influence. and navigating this world is going to be difficult and

frustrating. >> if you're mitt romney tonight on -- do you get aggressive or do you just simply try to prove that you're knowledgeable enough because you think that's the one test hurdle, whatever, bar you have to pass. >> the expression i would use is safe hands. americans want a president who can be commander in chief. i think there's a bit of what i would call intervention fatigue. americans are not looking -- to continue going hither and onlike in afghanistan and iraq. governor romney wants to give the sense if he's commander in chief, he's ready for the is job and he has got the temperament to do it. >> so you made the case why president obama is going to say wait a minute, he wanted to keep troops in iraq, he wants to be more aggressive with iran which could lead to war sooner. and that's the box the president wants to put him in and how romney gets out of it or not. >> exactly. and i think the challenge for the president will be to explain his own policy. in politics, one approach is obviously to demonize the challenger. the other is to make the case for yourself.

so i think the president is going to have to lay out some arguments about what he's going to do. and i think for governor romney, one particular chance for him is to make the case to link what we do abroad with what's going on at home. and to make the argument the biggest national security challenge facial the united states is not iran, is not libya, not china, it's us. and what we need to do is get our economy right. >> i have spoken to governor romney a couple times on this issue. i have spoken to his surrogates on this specific issue and that is mubarak. mitt romney has been critical of the arab spring how the u.s. handled it. generally says the president isn't standing close enough with aural lie. i said specifically do you believe he made a mistake with mubar mubarak. they never answer the question. do you get the sense that the president might not have pushed the door? >> my own view, we made a mistake in pushing mubarak. >> you do think -- >> i do think so. the i think the trends were going that way. mubarak was clearly leaving. it wasn't clear to me it was in the interest of the united states to give that last nudge.

it raised questions in place like bahrain and saudi arabia as to whether we would stand by our man. and from my point of view, probably unwise. >> but if we hadn't -- if we had kept him there, the argument then was that only fuels the typical anti-american, they always stand by these -- >> fair enough. >> benign dictators. >> fair enough. difficult choices. and that's a legitimate call. mubarak himself was prepared to see he was going. not run again. so we were talking a couple months at that point. and look, what i think you're highlighting, there's no easy choices in these things. the middle east is the middle east. and in every one of these situations, iran, libya, syria, these are tough calls. there's no easy options anymore. and i think that's the beginning of quite honestly wisdom. >> richard haass, always a wise hand to have on. we're going to have you tonight on our nbc news coverage. appreciate it. good to see you up there. >> thanks. we've got the super size panel, since i got the big

table. we'll get their take on what to expect tonight. but also what to expect. the two-week sprint starts tomorrow. what's the white house soup of the day? tomato basil. very boring. very, very boring. i hope that does not lead to what we expect tonight at the debate. you're watching a special edition of "the daily rundown" live from lynn university in basi basic boca raton, florida. i'm only in my 60's...

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after tonight's third and final debate, there will be exactly can two weeks to go before election day. beth rhinehart from "the national journal," chief correspondent for "the washington post," dan balz and spokesman, bill burton joins on

remote. bill, i'll start with you. if you go through our poll, it seems that you come to one conclusion. when it comes to the president. and that is, there is a small but insignificant slice of voters who have no earthly idea what a second term is going to look like from the president and that's what's holding them back. they're not running to the ballots to fire him, but they're not running to the ballot boxes to rehire him. and it seems to me they have no idea what the second term is going to look like. is that a problem? >> i take a different top line from that poll. i think when you look at it, there is some problem that mitt romney has, that he can't sort of achieve higher than he has been able to, especially in ohio. when you look at that poll. mitt romney is really disqualified with a large group of the noncollege men and women in that state. >> but, i mean, i think if you look at our national poll, bill. if you look at our national poll, that you guys spent six months disqualifying romney, and it seems as if our poll is showing he's not been

disqualified. >> i think the national possible is a lot less important than what you see in the state of roe. if mitt romney is not going to win ohio, he's not going to win this race. there is not a credible path that gets him to 270. >> i want to throw up the ohio poll. i know he's referencing -- there is a cbs quinnipiac-new york times poll that has the president 50-45. so florida is a swing state, but not relevant to the 270 electoral vote conversation, or is it relevant? >> florida is still in play. we saw a significant shift towards mitt romney. >> you're still nervous. >> it's going to come down to ground game. the obama camp has been here since he was elected in 2008. this is going to come down to turnout. we've got a good ground game. who has the stamina? we believe we have it. >> dan balz, this overall message, you spend a lot of time polling. is that what your sense is, what's missing is they spent all this time disqualifying romney,

now romney is qualified, so now what? >> i think there is a question, can the president give these voters a sense of optimism about a second term. we've talked a lot about how he hasn't laid out a second term agenda. i'm not sure we're going to get that in the last two weeks. what i think the question is, what does he believe he's actually able to do, other than a continuation? the message he's had, we are making progress, we can't go back. but i think what one of the points in the poll was 62% said theyment want a different second term than the first and i don't think he has answered that question sufficiently and in an optimistic and hopeful way. >> you know, beth, you've had this same conversation. i've heard romney strategists say the thing they're most fearful of, is going to -- whether it's apologize or make a case that, look, i know i did this wrong. i'm going to do this right in my second term. and that if he sort of finds that wrong, that sweet spot without looking weak and says

i'm going to do that right, they're fearful of that moment. and they're happy that it hasn't happened yet. >> right. well, there is this reservoir of goodwill that the president has been able to tap that the pres been able to tap into and it's cushioned him against economic gravity, you know, as unemployment has been as high as it is. and i think, you know, for the governor, in these last couple of weeks, he was as someone said earlier, you know, they were trying to disqualify him and then in the first debate he proved that he was a worthy challenger. >> stick around i want to take a break so we have one more round of conversation. bill, i'll get to you right after the break. i promise, buddy. i got to get the trivia answer in here. who did george mcgovern to beat for his u.s. senate seat. the answer was bottum.

he was a liberal icon who inspired a generation of democrats. bill clinton worked for him. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] inside the v8 taste lab. tomato, obviously. haha. there's more than that though, there's a kick to it. there's a pop. wahlalalalallala! pepper, but not pepper, i'm getting like, pep-pepper. it's kind of like drinking a food that's a drink, or a drink that's a food, zip zip zip zip zip! i'm literally getting zinged by the flavor. smooth, but crisp. velvety. kind of makes me feel like a dah zing yah woooooh! [ male announcer ] taste it and describe the indescribable. could've had a v8. woooo!

let's bring back our panel. bill, i cut you off. i'll let you have your response ready now. i hope you didn't forget. >> i didn't forget. i appreciate it. the one thing i want to say is in that poll they were taking about how mitt romney is doing with voters. and whether or not he's disqualified or not. one number that's important is that the president does 13 points better than mitt romney on the question who will look after the middle class and i think as voters are going to polls on election day and as

they are going to vote early, that sense that mitt romney is for the wealthy at the expense of the middle class and barack obama is for the middle class will be the determinative factor. >> is that a fair assessment that that's the romney hurdle, it's that spin gap. does he relate to the average middle class america? >> look there are a number of undecided voters out there. they are looking for a vision and a purpose. the economy is the biggest issue, overwhelming undecided voters trust mitt romney on the economy more than barack obama. >> tonight at the debate, b.e.t., you've been involved in thes these debates. >> i think governor romney is going to definitely launch a criticism of the president's foreign policy but i think he's also going to try to pivot it back to the economy.

that's his strong suit. he'll say something we can't be strong abroad if we're not strong here. >> dan, what do you expect from the president? >> i think the president will try to project strength, command and calm through the course of the debate and i think he'll try to get under mitt romney's skin if he can. >> you expect him to be a little bit aggressive. >> a little bit. >> i do too. does mitt romney take the bait. you're on remote. plug away. >> at priorities we started with mitt romney's business record, we're ending with it. the real romney record.com comes through with the last ads running on mitt romney. >> chairman lenny. >> hello to my kids and my wife and if you need financing and accounting staff check out xif group. >> i'll take a cue from the chairman. i want to thank my girls and my husband for putting up with he had. >> and -- >> i'll plot "the washington post" website all day long.

we have full coverage all day long. if you're watching it somewhere else follow it. >> i'm fearful if i start plugging all my family that lives down here i'll forget somebody. watch our coverage today. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." coming up, chris jansing. bye-bye. >> i'm kirns kirns with your business travel forecast. a very warm october day. mild air from denver to the east coast a chance of a few showers hit or miss from minneapolis to chicago up to southern michigan. worst weather in the country is found in the northwest with a big storm system with snow in the high elevations and rain in our northwest cities. have a great day. tylenol:nyquil. what are you doing?

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